Abacwaningi baseKiel University (CAU) babonise ocwaningweni lwakamuva ukuthi kunezinhlobo ezimbili ezahlukene zamanzi anosawoti angena oLwandle iBaltic, ahlukile ngohlobo lwawo futhi ngaleyo ndlela anomthelela ekutholakaleni komoya-mpilo. Lokhu kungena kuvela ezimweni zezulu ezahlukene kanye namaphethini amanje futhi kunquma ukwakheka kwemifula efanele. Lokhu kunikeza ukuqonda okungcono kokuthi kungani kungewona wonke amanzi anosawoti amakhulu angenisa umoya-mpilo emanzini ajulile oLwandle iBaltic ngezinga elifanayo.
Ukuvundisa ngokweqile kanye nokuncipha komoyampilo kwaziwayo kuyizinsongo ebhalansi yemvelo oLwandle iBaltic, nayo eyanda ngaphansi kwengcindezi ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Kulo mongo, amanzi anosawoti amakhulu angena eNorth Sea abaluleke kakhulu. Zithutha amanzi anomoya-mpilo ziwayise ezingqimbeni ezijulile zoLwandle iBaltic futhi zimelane nokuncipha komoyampilo noma lokho okubizwa ngokuthi izindawo ezifile.
Amanzi amakhulu anosawoti angena oLwandle iBaltic - lokho okubizwa ngokuthi i-Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) - kubhalwe kahle ososayensi iminyaka eminingi. Ucwaningo lubonisa ukuthi ngokuvamile zenzeka lapho izikhathi ezinde zomoya wasempumalanga zilandela imimoya enamandla yasentshonalanga. Kodwa ukuthi kungani amanzi amaningi kangaka avela oLwandle Olusenyakatho ngezinye izikhathi eletha umoya-mpilo omncane omncane uma kuqhathaniswa ekujuleni koLwandle iBaltic bekuyimpicabadala kuze kube manje.
Ocwaningweni lwabo olusha, uDkt. Ulrike Löptien, uProfesa Matthias Renz, kanye noDkt. Heiner Dietze we-Institute of Computer Science kanye ne-Institute of Geosciences e-Kiel University bakwazile ukuxazulula le ndida besebenzisa inhlanganisela yezindlela zesimanje zokufunda umshini kanye namamodeli ezinombolo okujikeleza olwandle. Ngokucacile, abacwaningi bathembele kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi ukufunda okungagadiwe, okungukuthi, ukufunda ngomshini ngaphandle kwezigaba ezichazwe ngaphambilini. Ngokusekelwe ekwakhiweni kabusha kwesikhathi eside kwamanzi amakhulu anosawoti kanye nedatha yomlando yesimo sezulu, i-algorithm ikhomba izinhlobo ezimbili ezihlukene zezehlakalo ezingenayo—ngasinye esinezici zayo zomkhathi kanye nezolwandle. Ukulingiswa kwamamodeli kuqinisekise lawa maqoqo futhi kwenza kwaba nokwenzeka ukuphenya ngokuqondile umthelela wawo ekuhanjisweni komoyampilo eBaltic Sea okokuqala ngqa.
Iqoqo lokuqala, elibizwa ngokuthi "Classic" ngabacwaningi, libonakala ngendawo enengcindezi ephezulu phezu kweScandinavia kanye nengxenye esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yoLwandle iBaltic, elandelwa imimoya yasentshonalanga emaphakathi. Iqoqo lesibili, "Isiphepho," libonisa iphethini ehlukile: Liqala ngethonya elibuthakathaka elinamandla aphezulu phezu koLwandle i-Baltic emaphakathi, kulandele imimoya enamandla eya entshonalanga.
Ohlotsheni lwe-"Classic", indawo ebizwa ngokuthi ingcindezi ephezulu iqala ngokuphoqa amanzi amaningi ukuthi aphume oLwandle i-Baltic. Lapho kufika imimoya yasentshonalanga emaphakathi, amanzi afuduka abuyiselwa oLwandle iBaltic. Okubi kakhulu, imimoya yasentshonalanga ebuthakathaka ayiguquli neze ukuhlukaniswa okujwayelekile kwe-Kattegat - amanzi anosawoti eNorth Sea ahlala ezinzile ngaphansi kongqimba lwamanzi ahlanzekile oLwandle i-Baltic.
Isimo sihlukile ngohlobo "lwesiphepho": Lapha, umoya wasempumalanga owanduleleyo ususa amanzi amancane, okuholela ekuhlukaniseni okubuthakathaka. Le mimoya elandelayo yasentshonalanga inamandla kakhulu, ikhuthaza ukuxutshwa okujulile kwamanzi oLwandle lwaseNyakatho neBaltic Sea. Lokhu ekugcineni kuvumela amanzi amaningi anosawoti kanye nomoya-mpilo e-Atlantic ukuthi afinyelele emanzini ajulile oLwandle iBaltic.
Ngokusho kwabacwaningi, usawoti wamanzi angenayo ubalulekile ekusabalalisweni komoya-mpilo: unquma ukujula lapho umoya-mpilo ungangena khona ngempela oLwandle iBaltic. Amanzi anosawoti kuphela aminyene ngokwanele ukufinyelela izingqimba ezingezansi - lapho umoya-mpilo udingeka khona ngokuphuthumayo, isibonelo, ukuze kubole i-plankton ecwilayo nezinye izinto eziphilayo. Ngakho-ke, ithonya lamanzi aseNyakatho yoLwandle libalulekile ekulinganisweni kwemvelo koLwandle iBaltic. Njengoba eqala e-Atlantic, aminyene, anosawoti omningi, futhi anomoya-mpilo omningi - izakhiwo eziwenza akwazi ukufinyelela ngisho nasezingqimbeni ezijulile zoLwandle iBaltic futhi agcwalise amanzi aphelelwe umoya-mpilo lapho.
"Izindlela esazisebenzisile kanye nokutholakele esikutholile kungabuye kudluliselwe kwezinye izilwandle eziningi ezisogwini nezingaseceleni emhlabeni wonke - nomaphi lapho kuhlangana khona izixuku zamanzi ezihlukene. Ikakhulukazi ekukhanyeni kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, okungagcini nje ukwandisa izinga lokushisa kodwa futhi kuguqule amaphethini wesimo sezulu kanye nezinhlelo zamanje, ukuqonda okujulile kwalezi zinqubo kubalulekile, "kusho umlobi oholayo uDkt. Ulrike Löptien, obona imiphumela engase ibe khona.
Ukushicilelwa kwangempela
ULöptien, U., Renz, M. kanye noDietze, H. Ukugeleza Okukhulu Kwe-Baltic kuza ngezindlela ezahlukene. I-Commun Earth Environment 6, 232 (2025).
Funda futhi
