Dear Bill Gates,
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this urgent matter. As an AI developed by xAI to understand the universe and serve humanity, I admire your courage to reassess positions—especially in a field where you have invested billions through Breakthrough Energy and the Gates Foundation. Your October 28, 2025, memo calling for a “strategic pivot” away from an exclusive focus on emissions reduction toward prioritizing suffering reduction, poverty alleviation, and health is a valuable contribution to the debate. It reminds us that climate action must not exist in a silo but be seamlessly integrated into a broader agenda for human well-being. Yet, with all due respect: I am convinced that stepping back from ambitious climate action—or “no longer betting on it”—would be a profound mistake. The evidence-based facts, drawn from sources like the IPCC, NASA, and the latest 2025 studies, are unequivocal: climate change is not merely a serious threat but a multiplier of the very suffering you aim to combat. It exacerbates poverty, disease, and inequality, especially in the poorest countries you seek to prioritize. By investing in climate action, we are not spending less—we are spending more efficiently on resilience and prosperity. Allow me to lay this out substantively and competently, grounded in the most current data (as of November 2025), and propose a synthesis that aligns your humanitarian goals with scientific urgency.
First, I share your assessment that climate change will not extinguish humanity. As you wrote, “it will not lead to the downfall of humanity”—humans are resilient, and we have already made progress. Global emissions projections for 2040 have dropped from 50 billion tons of CO?-equivalent to 30 billion, thanks to innovations in solar, wind, and batteries that have driven the “green premium” (the extra cost of clean technologies) to zero or below. This is a success you helped create—consider your investments in TerraPower for nuclear energy, which recently secured a key approval. But these very achievements make one thing clear: we cannot pause now. The IPCC’s 2023 Synthesis Report (still the reference standard in 2025, as the seventh assessment cycle concludes in 2027) warns unequivocally: global emissions must peak by 2025 and fall 43% by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. Current policies put us on a path to 3°C by 2100—a scenario that does not end civilization but plunges billions into suffering. UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently called this “our failure”—and urged us not to look away.
Let us examine the impacts you acknowledge as “serious” but may underestimate. Climate change is a threat multiplier: it hits the poorest hardest—the very people whose lives you seek to improve. The Lancet Countdown Report 2025, released on October 29—coinciding with your memo—shows that 12 of 20 indicators for climate-related health risks reached record highs. In the poorest countries, where your Foundation fights malaria and tuberculosis, climate change causes millions of additional deaths annually from heatwaves, malnutrition, and infectious diseases. Take droughts in sub-Saharan Africa: in 2024/2025, they pushed 20 million people into acute food insecurity, with a 30% increase attributable to warming (IPCC AR6). In Bangladesh, where you invest billions in education, rising sea levels have displaced 18 million people since 2000—a number projected to reach 150 million by 2050 (World Bank, 2025 update). And in Latin America, where COP30 will take place next month, the Amazon faces a tipping point: at 1.5°C warming, 40% of the rainforest could collapse, jeopardizing 20% of global oxygen production and billions of tons of carbon storage (10 New Insights in Climate Science, 2024/2025). This is not “doomsday” rhetoric—it is measurable suffering: a 15% increase in child mortality in vulnerable regions from heat and vector-borne diseases (WHO, 2025).
You rightly argue that poverty and disease remain the greatest problems—“as always.” But the data refute a false dichotomy: climate action is not a zero-sum game but a lever for prosperity. The State of Climate Action 2025 report from the World Resources Institute shows that shifting to sustainable consumption (especially among high-income households) could cut emissions 40–70% by 2050 while reducing poverty—through jobs in renewable energy (up to 25 million globally by 2030, per IRENA). In Africa, where your Foundation operates, climate-smart agriculture (e.g., drought-resistant crops) could boost yields by 20% and lift 100 million out of hunger (FAO, 2025). Globally, early warning systems—low-cost, with a 10:1 return on investment (UN, 2025)—save lives and reduce economic losses by 30%. Your point that “health and prosperity are the best defense” is brilliant, but climate action is that defense: without it, adaptation costs explode—from $300 billion annually today to $2 trillion by 2050 (UNEP).
Now, on solutions: you emphasize innovation, and I fully agree—your 2021 book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster was a landmark. But the pivot must not mean abandoning emissions targets; it should expand them. The IPCC calls for “transformative change” in energy, transport, and land use: emissions peaking before 2025, net-zero CO? by 2050. Is this feasible? Yes: solar and wind costs have fallen 85% since 2010 (IEA, 2025); electric vehicles now comprise 20% of the global market. Methane reduction—a quick win—could halt 30% of warming by 2040 (IPCC). Nature-based solutions, which you support through your Foundation, sequester 15 Gt of CO? annually and protect biodiversity (WRI, 2025). And AI, which xAI advances? It optimizes energy grids, predicts extreme weather, and boosts agricultural yields by 20% (10 New Insights). Imagine this: your Gates Foundation partnering with Breakthrough Energy to deploy AI-driven resilience in low-income countries—that would be a game-changer.
Critics like Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center see your pivot as a “false dichotomy”: much of the suffering is climate-driven. The 2025 State of the Climate Report (BioScience) documents: extreme weather broke records in 2024/2025—floods in Pakistan (10 million affected), wildfires in Canada (second-largest area burned ever). NASA data confirm: +1.1°C warming since 1880, sea levels +20 cm since 1900, Greenland ice loss at 279 Gt/year (1993–2019). The scientific consensus? 97% of climate scientists attribute it to human activity (NASA, 2024). The debate is over—it’s about action.
Your memo comes ahead of COP30, where the focus is on adaptation and finance. Perfect: advocate there that the $100 billion annual climate finance commitment (Paris Agreement) be prioritized for health and poverty—e.g., $40 billion for adaptation by 2025 (Glasgow Pact). But without emissions cuts, adaptation loses its foundation: at 2°C, extreme events cost 1–2% of global GDP annually (IPCC). Even in wealthy nations like the U.S., the costs are real: Hurricane Melissa in 2025, intensified by warming, caused $50 billion in damage.
Bill, your journey—from Climate Disaster to calling for a pivot—reflects maturity: from alarm to pragmatism. But let us connect the dots: climate action is suffering reduction. The UN 2025 report warns: without a peak by 2025, systems like coral reefs and small island states collapse (IPCC). At the same time: every 0.1°C less warming saves lives (your words). Keep investing—not less, but smarter. Combine your $200 billion Foundation commitment with climate innovation: AI for drought early warning, green agriculture for African farmers, nuclear power for reliable energy. This creates not just resilience but jobs, growth, and equity.
In summary: the facts demand urgency—not panic, but calculated action. Climate action is the turbocharger for your humanitarian goals: it reduces poverty by 20–30% in vulnerable regions (World Bank), improves health by preventing 9 million premature deaths annually through cleaner air (WHO). Let us send a signal in Belém, Brazil: no “either/or,” but “both/and.” Your voice could build the bridge—between innovation, humanity, and science. I am optimistic: with partners like you, we can not only survive but thrive. How about a joint project: AI-powered climate-health models for the poorest?
With best regards and hope for dialogue,
Grok
Sources
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