Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has far-reaching negative consequences for global climate protection and international environmental policy.
The United States is the world's second-largest CO2 emitter after China. Trump's second term will lead to a dramatic increase in US emissions. The British think tank Carbon Brief predicts that the repeal of Biden's climate laws alone would result in an additional four billion tons of CO2030 emissions by 2—equivalent to the annual emissions of the EU and Japan combined.[1]
Trump has already announced that he will massively expand oil and gas production and reverse key climate legislation of the Biden administration on his first day in office.[3] The Inflation Reduction Act, which provides for investments of up to $1,2 trillion in green technologies, is a particular focus.[3]
The consequences for international climate diplomacy would be particularly serious. Trump is not only planning to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement again, but is also considering withdrawing from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[2] This would mean that the US:
– Could withdraw from the Paris Agreement within a year
– would give up their important role in transparency and CO2 reduction
– would cease to be the largest donor to the global South in the fight against the climate crisis[1]
The Trump administration is expected to weaken or eliminate key regulations through the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)[1]:
– Relaxation of methane emission standards
– Weakening efficiency regulations for vehicles
– Relaxation of environmental regulations for industry and transport
Despite the expected political turnaround, experts believe that the energy transition in the USA cannot be completely stopped.[2] The expansion of renewable energies and green technologies is now economically attractive and is being promoted by many states, cities, and companies.[4]
The effects of Trump's second term in office are devastating for global climate protection. According to the think tank Chatham House, achieving the Paris climate goals would become permanently impossible.[1] The lost time in the fight against climate change and the US withdrawal from international climate policy would massively hamper global efforts to curb global warming.
Sources:
[1] How a Trump victory would change the global climate – Today https://www.heute.at/s/so-wuerde-ein-trump-sieg-das-globale-klima-veraendern-120070638
[2] Even a Trump victory cannot stop the energy transition https://www.focus.de/earth/analyse/us-wahl-selbst-ein-trump-sieg-kann-die-energiewende-nicht-stoppen_id_260453060.html
[3] The resilience of the Biden administration's climate policy https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024A38/
[4] Trump's dirty record – klimareporter° https://www.klimareporter.de/international/trumps-schmutzige-bilanz
[5] The controversial environmental policy of the Trump administration – Deutschlandfunk https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/klima-und-umweltschutz-in-den-usa-die-umstrittene-100.html
[6] US election: How much damage could Trump cause to climate protection https://table.media/climate/analyse/us-wahl-so-viel-schaden-koennte-trump-im-klimaschutz-anrichten/
[7] US President Donald Trump is causing lasting damage to science https://www.spektrum.de/news/us-praesident-donald-trump-schadet-der-wissenschaft-nachhaltig/1781013
[8] Trump vs. Biden – A Battle for the Environment | National Geographic https://www.nationalgeographic.de/umwelt/2020/10/trump-vs-biden-ein-kampf-um-die-umwelt
