Temperature, day length, and humidity may be linked to the increasing spread of a diarrheal disease, a new study from the University of Surrey shows. The findings help predict future outbreaks of the disease.
In this unique study, researchers led by Dr. Giovanni Lo Iacono investigated the influence of weather on the transmission of campylobacteriosis, a bacterial infection that can cause diarrhea and stomach pain.
According to the World Health Organization, Campylobacter infections are the most common cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in humans worldwide. Infections are generally mild but can be fatal in very young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals.
To determine whether weather influences the incidence of campylobacteriosis, researchers analyzed data from approximately one million campylobacteriosis cases in England and Wales over a 20-year period, provided by UKHSA. The team developed an innovative mathematical model that allowed them to compare this Met Office data with the weather parameters of the time.
Analysis of this data revealed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis was constant at temperatures below eight degrees Celsius. However, a sharp increase in infections (approximately one case per million) was observed for every five-degree increase in temperature, with temperatures ranging from eight to 15 degrees Celsius. The team found a correlation with humidity, also observing high rates of infection when the water vapor content of the air was between 75 and 80 percent.
Interestingly, the researchers observed strong correlations between day length (longer than 10 hours) and the increase in disease cases. This relationship was even stronger when humidity was high. Rainfall and wind speed were not strongly associated with the spread of campylobacteriosis.
DOI
10.1371 / journal.pcbi.1011714
